In countries such as the UK and the US, more than 95% of people currently have immunity (measured via antibodies), up from 5% in December 2020. ![]() This immunity is more likely to provide protection against severe illness and death, but offers some protection against infection. But 66% of the world’s population is estimated to have some form of immunity against SARS-CoV-2. The relative levels and duration of immunity against SARS-CoV-2, either attained through infection (“natural”), vaccination (“artificial”), or both (“hybrid”), are not completely clear. When we’re infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), or when we are vaccinated, the immune system is primed to protect against future infections. So, how does the COVID outlook for this winter differ from the previous two? Let’s look at some key factors which will determine how things might play out. But the virus is still very much with us. ![]() But vaccinations were successful in keeping numbers of deaths relatively low.ĬOVID cases and deaths in England in 2020, 20 winter seasonsĪdam Kleczkowski and UKHSA, Author providedĪs we approach our third COVID Christmas, there’s talk that we’re now “ post-pandemic”. But the spread of the omicron variant threatened festive plans.Ī huge wave of cases followed and quashed any notion that herd immunity may be achievable with this virus. One year later, in December 2021, predictions were more optimistic, with 70% of the UK population having received two vaccine doses. On a brighter note, the first vaccine doses were beginning to be administered, offering hope for suppressing the pandemic. ![]() But winter social mixing that took place before a full national lockdown was implemented in early January 2021 caused the number of deaths to rise quickly, reaching levels similar to those in the first wave.Īt the same time a new variant, alpha, was starting to spread. In 2020, Christmas plans were significantly curtailed, with a range of restrictions in place across the UK. There’s little question we’re in a better position compared with 20. The UK is now approaching its third Christmas of the COVID pandemic.
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